Roma vs Lecce Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Roma v Lecce — Team-Based Signals
Roma vs Lecce Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-0
Lecce
İTA
1-1
HT 1-1
Roma
İTA
2-1
HT 1-1
Lecce
İTA
3-1
HT 1-1
Lecce
İTK
4-0
HT 2-0
Lecce
İTA
Roma 4-1 Lecce — Actual Match Statistics
Roma swept aside Lecce 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Roma had 60% of the ball to Lecce's 40%, shots finished 23-3, expected goals 1.90 to 0.88.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Roma and 0.67 for Lecce.
What was the final score of Roma vs Lecce?
Roma 4-1 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Roma vs Lecce?
Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Roma 54%, draw 25%, Lecce 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.