Düren Merzenich 2-1 Paderborn 07 II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.86
Over 2.5
41%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.73
No
57%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
18%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
37%
Away Win
40%
-3.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
50%
+9.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
50%
-9.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
54%
-10.9pp
57%
BTTS No
46%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Düren Merzenich EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn 07 II EU Bookmakers 45%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.58/1.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/1.53
+7% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +87% / -11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Düren Merzenich
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Paderborn 07 II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
27.07.2024 Paderborn 07 II Paderborn 07 II 1-1 HT 0-1 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich ALMBÖL
23.02.2024 Paderborn 07 II Paderborn 07 II 2-0 HT 1-0 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich ALMBÖL
02.09.2023 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich 2-0 HT 1-0 Paderborn 07 II Paderborn 07 II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Düren Merzenich vs Paderborn 07 II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Düren Merzenich squeezed past Paderborn 07 II 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Düren Merzenich found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Düren Merzenich and 1.00 for Paderborn 07 II.

What was the final score of Düren Merzenich vs Paderborn 07 II?

Düren Merzenich 2-1 Paderborn 07 II in the Germany - Regional League on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Düren Merzenich vs Paderborn 07 II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Düren Merzenich win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Düren Merzenich 37%, draw 26%, Paderborn 07 II 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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