Persebaya Surabaya 3-2 Arema Malang — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Indonesia League 1, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.68
Over 2.5
39%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
46%
-9.1pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.4pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Persebaya Surabaya EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Arema Malang EU Bookmakers 29%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.32/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.37
-4% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
313 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Persebaya Surabaya
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Arema Malang
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
285 Passes 234
27.03.2024 Arema Malang Arema Malang 0-1 HT 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
01.10.2022 Arema Malang Arema Malang 2-3 HT 2-2 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
23.02.2022 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 HT 0-0 Arema Malang Arema Malang ENDL1
06.11.2021 Arema Malang Arema Malang 2-2 HT 2-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
12.12.2019 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 4-1 HT 2-0 Arema Malang Arema Malang ENDL1
POST-MATCH Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema Malang
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Persebaya Surabaya edged past Arema Malang 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Persebaya Surabaya found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Persebaya Surabaya had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 1.00 for Arema Malang.

What was the final score of Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema Malang?

Persebaya Surabaya 3-2 Arema Malang in the Indonesia League 1 on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema Malang?

Before kick-off our model rated a Persebaya Surabaya win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Persebaya Surabaya 37%, draw 30%, Arema Malang 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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