Saipa 1-0 Naft Gachsaran — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Azadegan League, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
15%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.36
Over 2.5
35%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
31%
2.75
No
69%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
1.83
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
13%
7.34
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
5%
X/X
20%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
55%
-1.7pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.7pp
15%
Away Win
16%
-1.1pp
65%
Under 2.5
70%
-4.9pp
35%
Over 2.5
30%
+4.9pp
31%
BTTS Yes
32%
-0.7pp
69%
BTTS No
68%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saipa EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Naft Gachsaran EU Bookmakers 19%
+13% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.28/0.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.27
-9% / +149% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
249 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saipa
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Naft Gachsaran
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
05.06.2024 Saipa Saipa 2-1 HT 1-0 Naft Gachsaran IRANAZ
12.12.2023 Naft Gachsaran 2-3 HT 1-1 Saipa Saipa IRANAZ
POST-MATCH Saipa vs Naft Gachsaran
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saipa edged past Naft Gachsaran 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Saipa as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (69%) came in.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Saipa had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Saipa and 1.50 for Naft Gachsaran.

What was the final score of Saipa vs Naft Gachsaran?

Saipa 1-0 Naft Gachsaran in the Iran - Azadegan League on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saipa vs Naft Gachsaran?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saipa win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Saipa 53%, draw 32%, Naft Gachsaran 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saipa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Saipa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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