Erzgebirge Aue 2-2 Ingolstadt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 7 Dec 2025

Erzgebirge Aue
2-2 HT 0-1
Ingolstadt
📅07/12/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2025/2026

Erzgebirge Aue vs Ingolstadt Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
46%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.48
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.84
6+ Goals
12%
8.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.88
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
23.55
1/X
10%
12.85
X/1
12%
6.33
X/2
17%
5.73
X/X
7%
5.58
2/1
5%
25.5
2/2
18%
3.33
2/X
5%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.55 — our 12% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-4.2pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.9pp
46%
Away Win
39%
+7.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.7pp
45%
BTTS No
38%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erzgebirge Aue v Ingolstadt — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 43%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -9%
1.22/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.41
-17% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
15.8 Crosses 18.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

Erzgebirge Aue vs Ingolstadt Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Ingolstadt
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
361 Passes 406
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.05.2025 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 1-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
07.12.2024 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
19.12.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
06.08.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
20.05.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-3 HT 0-3 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
16.01.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-2 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3

Erzgebirge Aue 2-2 Ingolstadt — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2-2
AWAY Ingolstadt
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 7
524 Passes 189
87% Pass Accuracy 67%
26 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Ingolstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue and Ingolstadt couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Ingolstadt at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 68% of the ball to Ingolstadt's 32%, shots finished 15-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.00 for Ingolstadt.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Ingolstadt?

Erzgebirge Aue 2-2 Ingolstadt in the Germany - 3rd Division on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Ingolstadt?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ingolstadt win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 32%, draw 22%, Ingolstadt 46%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ingolstadt) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ingolstadt) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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