Nakhon Ratchasima 0-1 BG Pathum United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 7 Dec 2025

📅07/12/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.75
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
54%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
37%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
23%
+1.5pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.3pp
54%
Away Win
53%
+0.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.6pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nakhon Ratchasima EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 57%
+17% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -5%
0.91/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.03
-16% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +8%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
243 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 80%
12.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
14.2 Crosses 22.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nakhon Ratchasima
1W-1D-3L
AWAY BG Pathum United
0.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.67 xG 1.10
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
194 Passes 387
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.04.2025 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 1-0 HT 0-0 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima TAY
24.11.2024 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima 1-0 HT 0-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
05.11.2022 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima 0-4 HT 0-2 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
10.04.2022 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 3-0 HT 0-0 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima TAY
10.11.2021 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima 0-0 HT 0-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nakhon Ratchasima
0-1
AWAY BG Pathum United
0.43 xG 1.17
30% Ball Possession 70%
6 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
182 Passes 565
68% Pass Accuracy 89%
14 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nakhon Ratchasima vs BG Pathum United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United squeezed past Nakhon Ratchasima 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had BG Pathum United as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Nakhon Ratchasima had 30% of the ball to BG Pathum United's 70%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 0.43 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.20 goals for Nakhon Ratchasima and 1.60 for BG Pathum United.

What was the final score of Nakhon Ratchasima vs BG Pathum United?

Nakhon Ratchasima 0-1 BG Pathum United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nakhon Ratchasima vs BG Pathum United?

Before kick-off our model rated an BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Nakhon Ratchasima 25%, draw 22%, BG Pathum United 54%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BG Pathum United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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