Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 8 Feb 2024

Vitoria Guimaraes
3-1 HT 3-1
Gil Vicente
📅08/02/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2023/2024

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Gil Vicente Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
28%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.8
Over 2.5
54%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.06
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.73
6+ Goals
13%
16.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.73 — our 26% vs market 21.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.07
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
16.25
X/1
11%
3.64
X/2
7%
10.0
X/X
8%
5.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.15
2/2
16%
8.29
2/X
6%
17.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.15 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.3pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.9pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+10.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.6pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria Guimaraes v Gil Vicente — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 21%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
0.52/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.29/2.00
-79% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -81% / -23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards –

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Gil Vicente Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Gil Vicente
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.46 xG 1.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
349 Passes 383
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.01.2024 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
19.08.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
21.05.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
17.01.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
15.05.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 5-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
10.01.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 3-2 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR

Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 Gil Vicente — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
3-1
AWAY Gil Vicente
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes saw off Gil Vicente 3-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 46% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 54%, shots finished 13-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.17 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Gil Vicente?

Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Cup on 08/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 51%, draw 21%, Gil Vicente 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Over 2.5
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