Gil Vicente 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.99
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
34%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
4.17
6+ Goals
9%
20.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 32% vs market 30.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.87
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
8%
13.65
X/1
13%
6.41
X/2
9%
4.68
X/X
14%
4.1
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
18%
3.13
2/X
10%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+3.7pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.3pp
34%
Away Win
41%
-7.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.7pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 45%
+7% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.50/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.28
+37% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
18.7 Crosses 19.2
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gil Vicente
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.58 xG 1.86
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
388 Passes 328
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.08.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
21.05.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
17.01.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
15.05.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 5-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
10.01.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 3-2 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
14.03.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-4 HT 1-3 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gil Vicente
1-0
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.24 xG 0.88
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
320 Passes 380
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gil Vicente vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente squeezed past Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 32% / 34%) promised a tight game; Gil Vicente found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gil Vicente had 46% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 54%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 1.24 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Gil Vicente and 2.17 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Gil Vicente vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Gil Vicente 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gil Vicente vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente 34%, draw 32%, Vitoria Guimaraes 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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