Boavista 1-4 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
24%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.87
6+ Goals
10%
17.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 30% vs market 27.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.63
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
21%
4.31
X/2
9%
7.69
X/X
13%
4.35
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
9%
5.96
2/X
5%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
48%
+1.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
24%
Away Win
25%
-0.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boavista EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -11%
1.44/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.38
-5% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
21.7 Crosses 17.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boavista
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Portimonense
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.28 xG 1.17
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
282 Passes 376
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
19.08.2023 Portimonense Portimonense 1-4 HT 0-3 Boavista Boavista POR
29.01.2023 Boavista Boavista 4-2 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
07.08.2022 Portimonense Portimonense 0-1 HT 0-1 Boavista Boavista POR
12.02.2022 Portimonense Portimonense 1-1 HT 1-1 Boavista Boavista POR
12.09.2021 Boavista Boavista 1-1 HT 0-1 Portimonense Portimonense POR
01.08.2021 Boavista Boavista 2-0 HT 1-0 Portimonense Portimonense PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boavista
1-4
AWAY Portimonense
2.20 xG 0.68
68% Ball Possession 32%
21 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 1
464 Passes 181
85% Pass Accuracy 68%
37 Box Touches 13
46 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Boavista vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portimonense cruised past Boavista 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Boavista at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Boavista had 68% of the ball to Portimonense's 32%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 2.20 to 0.68 — the balance of chances actually favoured Boavista.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Boavista had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Boavista and 0.83 for Portimonense.

What was the final score of Boavista vs Portimonense?

Boavista 1-4 Portimonense in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boavista vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boavista win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Boavista 49%, draw 27%, Portimonense 24%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Boavista) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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