Farense 1-3 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Jan 2024

Farense
1-3 HT 0-2
Porto
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Farense vs Porto Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.91
Draw
29%
4.34
Away
51%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.1
Over 2.5
45%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.02
2-3 Goals
45%
1.83
4-5 Goals
18%
3.07
6+ Goals
9%
9.89
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.02 — our 28% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
12.35
1/2
7%
22.6
1/X
6%
20.3
X/1
7%
15.35
X/2
19%
3.47
X/X
13%
6.56
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
25%
1.65
2/X
9%
19.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
14%
+6.6pp
29%
Draw
20%
+9.1pp
51%
Away Win
66%
-15.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Farense v Porto — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 71%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +11%
2.48/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/0.76
+67% / +98% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +31%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
228 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 79%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.2
20.1 Crosses 19.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Farense vs Porto Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Porto
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.68 xG 2.44
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
170 Passes 454
66% Pass Accuracy 83%
9 Box Touches 39
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Porto Porto 2-1 HT 1-1 Farense Farense POR
10.05.2021 Porto Porto 5-1 HT 3-0 Farense Farense POR
25.01.2021 Farense Farense 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
06.04.2002 Farense Farense 0-3 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
30.11.2001 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 2-0 Farense Farense POR
04.03.2001 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR

Farense 1-3 Porto — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
1-3
AWAY Porto
1.99 xG 1.82
27% Ball Possession 73%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 10
140 Passes 522
67% Pass Accuracy 88%
10 Box Touches 35
15 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Farense vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto saw off Farense 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Farense had 27% of the ball to Porto's 73%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 1.99 to 1.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Farense and 2.50 for Porto.

What was the final score of Farense vs Porto?

Farense 1-3 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Farense 20%, draw 29%, Porto 51%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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