Arouca 5-0 Vizela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Jan 2024

Arouca
5-0 HT 2-0
Vizela
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Arouca vs Vizela Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
32%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.46
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.4
6+ Goals
10%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 31% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.4
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.75
X/1
16%
4.2
X/2
13%
8.28
X/X
11%
4.89
2/1
7%
23.45
2/2
12%
6.21
2/X
9%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
51%
-11.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+8.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Vizela — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Vizela EU Bookmakers 27%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.20/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.17
+1% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 74%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
18.7 Crosses 16.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0

Arouca vs Vizela Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Vizela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.97 xG 1.76
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
326 Passes 330
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.01.2024 Vizela Vizela 1-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POK
20.08.2023 Vizela Vizela 2-2 HT 1-1 Arouca Arouca POR
23.04.2023 Arouca Arouca 1-0 HT 1-0 Vizela Vizela POR
05.11.2022 Vizela Vizela 0-1 HT 0-1 Arouca Arouca POR
22.04.2022 Vizela Vizela 2-1 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
13.12.2021 Arouca Arouca 1-4 HT 0-4 Vizela Vizela POR

Arouca 5-0 Vizela — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
5-0
AWAY Vizela
2.45 xG 1.08
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 2
343 Passes 375
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 11
6 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Vizela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca ran out comfortable winners over Vizela 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Arouca made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Arouca had 49% of the ball to Vizela's 51%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 2.45 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vizela led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arouca and 1.50 for Vizela.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Vizela?

Arouca 5-0 Vizela in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Vizela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Arouca 40%, draw 29%, Vizela 32%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arouca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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