Vizela 1-0 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 10 Jan 2024

Vizela
1-0 HT 0-0
Arouca
📅10/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2023/2024

Vizela vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
39%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.67
Over 2.5
51%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.69
2-3 Goals
36%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
4.31
6+ Goals
10%
21.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.31 — our 27% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.78
1/2
8%
29.0
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
15%
6.21
X/2
16%
4.65
X/X
10%
4.08
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
15%
3.2
2/X
8%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
31%
+4.4pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.5pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-1.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.0pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vizela v Arouca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vizela EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.15/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-18% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +28%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Vizela vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vizela
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Arouca
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.69 xG 0.88
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
324 Passes 312
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 17
27 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Vizela Vizela 2-2 HT 1-1 Arouca Arouca POR
23.04.2023 Arouca Arouca 1-0 HT 1-0 Vizela Vizela POR
05.11.2022 Vizela Vizela 0-1 HT 0-1 Arouca Arouca POR
22.04.2022 Vizela Vizela 2-1 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
13.12.2021 Arouca Arouca 1-4 HT 0-4 Vizela Vizela POR
21.03.2021 Vizela Vizela 1-1 HT 1-1 Arouca Arouca POR2

Vizela 1-0 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vizela
1-0
AWAY Arouca
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vizela vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vizela squeezed past Arouca 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 26% / 39%) promised a tight game; Vizela found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Vizela had 52% of the ball to Arouca's 48%, shots finished 16-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vizela and 1.17 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Vizela vs Arouca?

Vizela 1-0 Arouca in the Portugal - Cup on 10/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vizela vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Vizela 35%, draw 26%, Arouca 39%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arouca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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