Gil Vicente 3-1 Amarante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 10 Jan 2024

📅10/01/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.3
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
24%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.4
No
59%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.35
2-3 Goals
34%
1.75
4-5 Goals
26%
3.3
6+ Goals
10%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 30% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
12%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
73%
-16.8pp
20%
Draw
18%
+2.1pp
24%
Away Win
10%
+14.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
38%
+3.8pp
59%
BTTS No
62%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Amarante EU Bookmakers 12%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/3.00
-28% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
527 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gil Vicente
3-1
AWAY Amarante
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 0
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gil Vicente vs Amarante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente beat Amarante 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Gil Vicente as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gil Vicente had 64% of the ball to Amarante's 36%, shots finished 11-8.

What was the final score of Gil Vicente vs Amarante?

Gil Vicente 3-1 Amarante in the Portugal - Cup on 10/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gil Vicente vs Amarante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente 56%, draw 20%, Amarante 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gil Vicente) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gil Vicente) ✗ BTTS No
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