Benfica 3-2 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 10 Jan 2024

Benfica
3-2 HT 2-1
Sporting Braga
📅10/01/2024 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2023/2024

Benfica vs Sporting Braga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.45
Draw
18%
4.34
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.59
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.65
2-3 Goals
39%
2.02
4-5 Goals
28%
2.61
6+ Goals
11%
6.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.76
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
16.45
X/1
14%
3.89
X/2
6%
12.65
X/X
7%
7.18
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.3
2/2
11%
8.65
2/X
6%
16.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.3 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
64%
-5.5pp
19%
Draw
20%
-1.1pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.1pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Sporting Braga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 20%
+10% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
2.42/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/2.54
+16% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
406 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
20.3 Crosses 9.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Benfica vs Sporting Braga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sporting Braga
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.69 xG 1.42
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
481 Passes 396
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-1 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
06.05.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
09.02.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica POK
31.12.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-0 HT 2-0 Benfica Benfica POR
30.12.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-0 HT 2-0 Benfica Benfica POR
01.04.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-2 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POR

Benfica 3-2 Sporting Braga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
3-2
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.47 xG 0.53
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 5
324 Passes 289
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica nicked a narrow win over Sporting Braga 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Benfica had 53% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 47%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.47 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Benfica and 1.67 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Sporting Braga?

Benfica 3-2 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Cup on 10/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Benfica 59%, draw 19%, Sporting Braga 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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