Mathare United 1-2 Gor Mahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 8 Feb 2025

📅08/02/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.48
Draw
18%
3.28
Away
61%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.52
Over 2.5
36%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.27
No
66%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
39%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
19%
+1.7pp
18%
Draw
27%
-9.6pp
61%
Away Win
54%
+7.9pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.2pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.2pp
34%
BTTS Yes
40%
-6.1pp
66%
BTTS No
60%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mathare United EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Gor Mahia EU Bookmakers 57%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.11/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/0.00
+17% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% /
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
309 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mathare United
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Gor Mahia
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
2 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
28.09.2024 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 4-0 HT 1-0 Mathare United Mathare United KEN
09.01.2022 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Mathare United Mathare United KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mathare United
1-2
AWAY Gor Mahia
45% Ball Possession 55%
4 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mathare United vs Gor Mahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gor Mahia edged past Mathare United 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Gor Mahia as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (66%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mathare United had 45% of the ball to Gor Mahia's 55%, shots finished 4-11.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Gor Mahia led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Mathare United and 2.50 for Gor Mahia.

What was the final score of Mathare United vs Gor Mahia?

Mathare United 1-2 Gor Mahia in the Kenya - Premier League on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mathare United vs Gor Mahia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gor Mahia win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Mathare United 21%, draw 18%, Gor Mahia 61%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gor Mahia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gor Mahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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