Toluca vs Cruz Azul Prediction — Model Probabilities
Toluca v Cruz Azul — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Cruz Azul Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Toluca 1-1 Cruz Azul — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca and Cruz Azul shared the points in a 1-1 draw. From 1-0 down at the break, the game flipped completely after half-time.
Our pre-match lean was Toluca at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.
By the numbers, Toluca had 55% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 45%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 2.62 to 0.79.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Toluca and 1.00 for Cruz Azul.
Toluca vs Cruz Azul Result & Final Score
Toluca 1 - 1 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 08/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Toluca vs Cruz Azul Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Toluca 51%, draw 25%, Cruz Azul 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 went the other way.