Toluca 0-1 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Apr 2024

Toluca
0-1 HT 0-1
Cruz Azul
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Toluca vs Cruz Azul Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.01
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.1
6+ Goals
10%
10.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
11%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
39%
+3.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-2.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.8pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toluca v Cruz Azul — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +12%
1.69/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.33
+48% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 80%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
16.8 Crosses 17.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Toluca vs Cruz Azul Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.34 xG 1.65
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
392 Passes 341
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
09.07.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-2 HT 0-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
12.02.2023 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
15.08.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-3 HT 1-2 Toluca Toluca MEK
21.02.2022 Toluca Toluca 1-4 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
15.08.2021 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 4-0 HT 3-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
16.05.2021 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK

Toluca 0-1 Cruz Azul — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
0-1
AWAY Cruz Azul
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
471 Passes 313
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul edged past Toluca 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Toluca at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Toluca had 59% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 41%, shots finished 16-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Toluca and 2.33 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Cruz Azul?

Toluca 0-1 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Toluca 43%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Toluca), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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