Tigres UANL 4-1 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
8.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.0pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.8pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -17%
1.66/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.82
-3% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
376 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 77%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
23.6 Crosses 16.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Tijuana
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.23 xG 0.76
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
401 Passes 307
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-0 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
21.01.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 1-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
18.07.2022 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
04.04.2022 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
26.07.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 1-2 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
22.02.2021 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 3-2 HT 2-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
4-1
AWAY Tijuana
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
467 Passes 279
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL cruised past Tijuana 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tigres UANL as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 61% of the ball to Tijuana's 39%, shots finished 19-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.00 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Tijuana?

Tigres UANL 4-1 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 54%, draw 23%, Tijuana 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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