Atlas 0-1 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.32
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.43
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.46
6+ Goals
9%
13.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 29% vs market 23.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
27%
+6.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.3pp
43%
Away Win
46%
-3.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 50%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -12%
1.10/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.05
-3% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +27%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
256 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
16.0 Crosses 18.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.01 xG 1.36
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
246 Passes 289
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 4-1 HT 1-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
15.05.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
12.05.2023 Atlas Atlas 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
02.04.2023 Atlas Atlas 3-3 HT 2-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
14.08.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
16.05.2022 Atlas Atlas 1-1 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
0-1
AWAY Guadalajara
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
239 Passes 357
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara squeezed past Atlas 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Atlas had 42% of the ball to Guadalajara's 58%, shots finished 12-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atlas and 1.67 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Guadalajara?

Atlas 0-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Atlas 33%, draw 24%, Guadalajara 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5
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