FC Juarez 1-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Apr 2024

FC Juarez
1-1 HT 1-0
Leon
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒02:06 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

FC Juarez vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.46
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
22%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.56
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.46 — our 27% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
7%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
38%
Away Win
40%
-2.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.5pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FC Juarez v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -7%
1.24/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/0.98
-8% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
271 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 80%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
19.6 Crosses 16.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

FC Juarez vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Leon
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.50 xG 1.45
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
249 Passes 434
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.11.2023 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 2-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
18.02.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
07.09.2022 Leon Leon 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
05.03.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
19.09.2021 Leon Leon 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
20.04.2021 Leon Leon 2-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK

FC Juarez 1-1 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
1-1
AWAY Leon
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 11
219 Passes 213
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Juarez and Leon couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, FC Juarez had 51% of the ball to Leon's 49%, shots finished 11-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for FC Juarez and 1.00 for Leon.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Leon?

FC Juarez 1-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 33%, draw 29%, Leon 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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