Cruz Azul vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Cruz Azul v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Cruz Azul vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-1
Toluca
MEK
3-1
HT 1-1
Cruz Azul
MEK
2-3
HT 1-2
Toluca
MEK
1-4
HT 1-1
Cruz Azul
MEK
4-0
HT 3-0
Toluca
MEK
Cruz Azul 1-1 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics
Cruz Azul and Toluca shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Cruz Azul at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Cruz Azul had 68% of the ball to Toluca's 32%, shots finished 21-6, expected goals 1.72 to 0.60.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.50 for Toluca.
What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
Cruz Azul 1-1 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 46%, draw 27%, Toluca 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cruz Azul), Over 2.5 went the other way.