Guadalajara 2-0 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒02:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.03
Over 2.5
43%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.77
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
18%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 33% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-7.4pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.8pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
45%
+11.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
55%
-11.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.1pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 23%
-9% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -3%
1.56/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.63
-18% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
392 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
21.5 Crosses 15.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mazatlan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.20 xG 0.96
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
369 Passes 296
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.02.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
27.09.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-3 HT 0-2 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
30.04.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 4-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
06.08.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
10.01.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-0 HT 3-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
06.11.2021 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
2-0
AWAY Mazatlan
0.72 xG 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
397 Passes 299
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Box Touches 9
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara saw off Mazatlan 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Guadalajara had 55% of the ball to Mazatlan's 45%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.72 to 1.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Guadalajara and 1.33 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Mazatlan?

Guadalajara 2-0 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 49%, draw 28%, Mazatlan 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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