Velez Sarsfield 1-0 San Martin San Juan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.9
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
29%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.45
Over 2.5
37%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.33
No
60%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
1.98
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
13%
5.84
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.67
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.3
X/1
16%
4.11
X/2
12%
8.27
X/X
15%
3.48
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
12%
7.69
2/X
7%
16.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-8.8pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.9pp
29%
Away Win
21%
+8.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
65%
-1.9pp
37%
Over 2.5
35%
+1.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
39%
+0.8pp
60%
BTTS No
61%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY San Martin San Juan EU Bookmakers 24%
+7% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.44/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.42
+17% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +16%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
360 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 66%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
19.9 Crosses 19.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velez Sarsfield
2W-1D-3L
AWAY San Martin San Juan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.60 xG 1.49
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
314 Passes 235
76% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2023 San Martin San Juan San Martin San Juan 2-2 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJK
06.10.2018 San Martin San Juan San Martin San Juan 3-1 HT 1-1 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
05.05.2018 San Martin San Juan San Martin San Juan 0-2 HT 0-2 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
06.11.2016 San Martin San Juan San Martin San Juan 2-0 HT 2-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
06.09.2015 San Martin San Juan San Martin San Juan 3-1 HT 2-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
05.03.2013 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 3-0 HT 2-0 San Martin San Juan San Martin San Juan ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Velez Sarsfield
1-0
AWAY San Martin San Juan
0.88 xG 0.81
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
328 Passes 156
79% Pass Accuracy 62%
23 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Velez Sarsfield vs San Martin San Juan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Sarsfield nicked a narrow win over San Martin San Juan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 31% / 29%) promised a tight game; Velez Sarsfield found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Velez Sarsfield had 62% of the ball to San Martin San Juan's 38%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 0.88 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Martin San Juan led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 1.67 for San Martin San Juan.

What was the final score of Velez Sarsfield vs San Martin San Juan?

Velez Sarsfield 1-0 San Martin San Juan in the Argentina - Premier League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velez Sarsfield vs San Martin San Juan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Velez Sarsfield win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Velez Sarsfield 40%, draw 31%, San Martin San Juan 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Velez Sarsfield), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Velez Sarsfield) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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