San Lorenzo vs Independiente Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
San Lorenzo v Independiente — Team-Based Signals
San Lorenzo vs Independiente Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Independiente
ARJ
1-1
HT 0-1
Independiente
ARJ
1-1
HT 0-0
San Lorenzo
ARJ
2-1
HT 1-0
San Lorenzo
ARJ
0-0
HT 0-0
Independiente
ARJ
San Lorenzo 1-2 Independiente — Actual Match Statistics
Independiente nicked a narrow win over San Lorenzo 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 36% / 31% — and on the day Independiente made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (74%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, San Lorenzo had 40% of the ball to Independiente's 60%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.59 to 0.36 — the balance of chances actually favoured San Lorenzo.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for San Lorenzo and 0.67 for Independiente.
What was the final score of San Lorenzo vs Independiente?
San Lorenzo 1-2 Independiente in the Argentina - Premier League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for San Lorenzo vs Independiente?
Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split San Lorenzo 34%, draw 36%, Independiente 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.