San Lorenzo 1-2 Independiente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
36%
2.77
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
74%
1.36
Over 2.5
26%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.4
No
64%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
43%
1.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
13%
7.12
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.44
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.55
X/1
11%
5.31
X/2
10%
5.28
X/X
21%
3.09
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
13%
4.4
2/X
6%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
-0.4pp
36%
Draw
33%
+3.0pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.7pp
74%
Under 2.5
70%
+4.1pp
26%
Over 2.5
30%
-4.1pp
36%
BTTS Yes
38%
-1.3pp
64%
BTTS No
62%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Lorenzo EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.15/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.98
-7% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
289 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 75%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
22.1 Crosses 17.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Lorenzo
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Independiente
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.15 xG 1.08
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
384 Passes 272
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
04.08.2024 Independiente Independiente 0-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
02.04.2023 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
04.06.2022 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
06.12.2021 Independiente Independiente 1-1 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
04.11.2019 Independiente Independiente 2-1 HT 1-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
02.02.2019 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Lorenzo
1-2
AWAY Independiente
1.59 xG 0.36
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
156 Passes 251
65% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH San Lorenzo vs Independiente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente nicked a narrow win over San Lorenzo 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 36% / 31% — and on the day Independiente made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (74%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, San Lorenzo had 40% of the ball to Independiente's 60%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.59 to 0.36 — the balance of chances actually favoured San Lorenzo.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for San Lorenzo and 0.67 for Independiente.

What was the final score of San Lorenzo vs Independiente?

San Lorenzo 1-2 Independiente in the Argentina - Premier League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Lorenzo vs Independiente?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split San Lorenzo 34%, draw 36%, Independiente 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ARJ More Argentina - Premier League
8 Mar 2025
01:00 Velez Sarsfield vs San Martin San Juan Analysis →
01:00 Banfield vs Argentinos Juniors Analysis →
03:15 Central Cordoba Santiago vs Boca Juniors Analysis →