Llantwit Major 0-1 Baglan Dragons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.8
Over 2.5
39%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
1.73
No
65%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
22%
2/1
4%
2/2
25%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
-0.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
52%
+9.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
48%
-9.0pp
35%
BTTS Yes
54%
-19.2pp
65%
BTTS No
46%
+19.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Llantwit Major EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 37%
+12% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.39/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.36
-24% / +68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +27%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
341 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Llantwit Major
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Baglan Dragons
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
30.11.2024 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 0-0 HT 0-0 Llantwit Major GALFAW
29.03.2024 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 0-0 Llantwit Major GALFAW
12.08.2023 Llantwit Major 1-4 HT 1-2 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
POST-MATCH Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baglan Dragons squeezed past Llantwit Major 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Baglan Dragons found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (65%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Baglan Dragons led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Llantwit Major and 1.33 for Baglan Dragons.

What was the final score of Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?

Llantwit Major 0-1 Baglan Dragons in the Wales - FAW Championship on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?

Before kick-off our model rated a Llantwit Major win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Llantwit Major 38%, draw 28%, Baglan Dragons 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Llantwit Major) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Llantwit Major) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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