Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Kyoto Sanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 8 Mar 2026

📅08/03/2026 · 🕒06:55 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.5
2-3 Goals
38%
1.7
4-5 Goals
18%
4.17
6+ Goals
9%
21.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.5 — our 35% vs market 31.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
41%
Away Win
41%
-0.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.8pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 45%
-7% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.20/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.22
-30% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +5%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
250 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 74%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
24.3 Crosses 16.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.86 xG 1.64
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
196 Passes 330
63% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2025 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 5-0 HT 3-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
15.02.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-0 HT 2-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
20.11.2021 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-0 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
26.06.2021 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-0 HT 1-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
04.11.2020 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
29.07.2020 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-0
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
2.17 xG 0.63
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
193 Passes 235
65% Pass Accuracy 67%
29 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama nicked a narrow win over Kyoto Sanga 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Kyoto Sanga at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 46% of the ball to Kyoto Sanga's 54%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.17 to 0.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fagiano Okayama's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kyoto Sanga led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.67 for Kyoto Sanga.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga?

Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Kyoto Sanga in the Japan - J1 League on 08/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kyoto Sanga win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 32%, draw 27%, Kyoto Sanga 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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