AZ Alkmaar II 3-2 Emmen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 8 Apr 2024

📅08/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.38
Over 2.5
52%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.08
2-3 Goals
38%
1.96
4-5 Goals
26%
2.74
6+ Goals
12%
7.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.82
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
5%
12.4
X/1
13%
5.15
X/2
8%
7.01
X/X
14%
5.6
2/1 EV+ ✓
7%
22.3
2/2
18%
4.34
2/X
9%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.5pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Emmen EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +14%
1.58/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.27
+7% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +56%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
354 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
10.8 Crosses 15.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Emmen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.93 xG 1.15
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
308 Passes 467
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 32
9 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.10.2023 Emmen Emmen 2-1 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
08.04.2022 Emmen Emmen 3-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
22.11.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-0 HT 0-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
18.07.2018 Emmen Emmen 3-2 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HAZ
09.03.2018 Emmen Emmen 0-2 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
20.10.2017 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 HT 1-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
3-2
AWAY Emmen
1.21 xG 0.53
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
417 Passes 246
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
33 Box Touches 10
5 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs Emmen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II squeezed past Emmen 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; AZ Alkmaar II found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 59% of the ball to Emmen's 41%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.21 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emmen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 1.50 for Emmen.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs Emmen?

AZ Alkmaar II 3-2 Emmen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 08/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs Emmen?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 40%, draw 28%, Emmen 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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