Al Hilal Riyadh 2-1 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Super Cup, 8 Apr 2024

📅08/04/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.02
Draw
31%
3.64
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.43
Over 2.5
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.46
No
48%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.29
2-3 Goals
35%
1.98
4-5 Goals
28%
2.69
6+ Goals
13%
6.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
46%
-9.3pp
32%
Draw
24%
+7.2pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
64%
-12.8pp
48%
BTTS No
36%
+12.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -52% / -52%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
368 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Al Nassr
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.67 xG 1.21
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
355 Passes 353
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.02.2024 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 2-0 HT 2-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr HAZ
01.12.2023 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 3-0 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
12.08.2023 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 1-2 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr AŞMPL
18.04.2023 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
26.12.2022 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-2 HT 0-1 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh SUUD
03.03.2022 Al Nassr Al Nassr 0-4 HT 0-3 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh
2-1
AWAY Al Nassr
2.41 xG 0.64
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
408 Passes 273
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
54 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Hilal Riyadh squeezed past Al Nassr 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 32% / 32% — and on the day Al Hilal Riyadh made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Al Hilal Riyadh had 58% of the ball to Al Nassr's 42%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.41 to 0.64 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Hilal Riyadh's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Hilal Riyadh had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Al Hilal Riyadh and 0.67 for Al Nassr.

What was the final score of Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Nassr?

Al Hilal Riyadh 2-1 Al Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Super Cup on 08/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Hilal Riyadh win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Al Hilal Riyadh 37%, draw 32%, Al Nassr 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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