Saburtalo 1-3 Malmö FF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 8 Jul 2025

Saburtalo
1-3 HT 0-1
Malmö FF
📅08/07/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
Champions League – 2025/2026

Saburtalo vs Malmö FF Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.04
Draw
20%
3.35
Away
53%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.71
Over 2.5
52%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.69
2-3 Goals
43%
1.73
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
22%
4.0
6+ Goals
11%
19.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.0 — our 22% vs market 18.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
33%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
21%
+6.3pp
20%
Draw
26%
-6.6pp
53%
Away Win
52%
+0.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
55%
-7.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
45%
+7.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Saburtalo v Malmö FF — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Malmö FF EU Bookmakers 56%
-42% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -41% / -41%
1.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.83
-6% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -49%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
312 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 2.5

Saburtalo 1-3 Malmö FF — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saburtalo
1-3
AWAY Malmö FF
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Saburtalo vs Malmö FF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malmö FF beat Saburtalo 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Malmö FF as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Saburtalo had 52% of the ball to Malmö FF's 48%, shots finished 12-11.

What was the final score of Saburtalo vs Malmö FF?

Saburtalo 1-3 Malmö FF in the Champions League on 08/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saburtalo vs Malmö FF?

Before kick-off our model rated an Malmö FF win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Saburtalo 28%, draw 20%, Malmö FF 53%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Malmö FF), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Malmö FF) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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