Marbella 0-1 Ceuta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.59
Over 2.5
32%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
1.96
No
64%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
40%
2.46
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
14%
4.84
6+ Goals
7%
28.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.46 — our 40% vs market 34.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
19%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-3.1pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.5pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+1.6pp
68%
Under 2.5
59%
+8.8pp
32%
Over 2.5
41%
-8.8pp
36%
BTTS Yes
47%
-11.0pp
64%
BTTS No
53%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marbella EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceuta EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.17/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.48
-6% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -29%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
372 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marbella
0-1
AWAY Ceuta
57% Ball Possession 43%
5 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Marbella vs Ceuta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceuta nicked a narrow win over Marbella 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Ceuta found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Marbella had 57% of the ball to Ceuta's 43%, shots finished 5-8.

What was the final score of Marbella vs Ceuta?

Marbella 0-1 Ceuta in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marbella vs Ceuta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marbella win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Marbella 35%, draw 30%, Ceuta 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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