UCAM Murcia 1-0 Estepona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.51
Over 2.5
34%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.16
No
62%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-1.0pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.7pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.7pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.4pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.9pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UCAM Murcia EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Estepona EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -6%
1.01/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/0.77
-21% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +56%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
242 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UCAM Murcia
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Estepona
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.03.2024 UCAM Murcia UCAM Murcia 1-0 HT 0-0 Estepona Estepona İS4
12.11.2023 Estepona Estepona 1-0 HT 0-0 UCAM Murcia UCAM Murcia İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UCAM Murcia
1-0
AWAY Estepona
54% Ball Possession 46%
24 Total Shots 3
10 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 0
POST-MATCH UCAM Murcia vs Estepona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UCAM Murcia edged past Estepona 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had UCAM Murcia as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, UCAM Murcia had 54% of the ball to Estepona's 46%, shots finished 24-3.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for UCAM Murcia and 0.50 for Estepona.

What was the final score of UCAM Murcia vs Estepona?

UCAM Murcia 1-0 Estepona in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UCAM Murcia vs Estepona?

Before kick-off our model rated a UCAM Murcia win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split UCAM Murcia 46%, draw 31%, Estepona 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UCAM Murcia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (UCAM Murcia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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