Sport Recife 2-1 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 8 Oct 2024

📅08/10/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.61
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.52
6+ Goals
8%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.61 — our 35% vs market 32.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-5.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+4.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.9pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 25%
+2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.14/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/0.96
-11% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
334 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 78%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
22.8 Crosses 17.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Ceara
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.52 xG 0.97
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
310 Passes 238
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
21.06.2024 Ceara Ceara 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
28.10.2023 Ceara Ceara 2-1 HT 1-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
04.05.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BRCDN
20.04.2023 Ceara Ceara 2-1 HT 2-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BRCDN
15.02.2023 Ceara Ceara 3-2 HT 2-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BRCDN
16.02.2022 Ceara Ceara 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BRCDN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
2-1
AWAY Ceara
1.29 xG 1.55
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
245 Passes 197
74% Pass Accuracy 64%
19 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 19
6 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife edged past Ceara 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sport Recife as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sport Recife had 52% of the ball to Ceara's 48%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.29 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ceara led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sport Recife and 1.17 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Ceara?

Sport Recife 2-1 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie B on 08/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 45%, draw 29%, Ceara 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sport Recife) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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