Export Sebaco 1-3 Matagalpa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nikaragua - Premier League, 8 Nov 2024

📅08/11/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Export Sebaco EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Matagalpa EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.98/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.72
+42% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -18%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Export Sebaco
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Matagalpa
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 4
01.09.2024 Matagalpa Matagalpa 1-1 HT 1-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
03.03.2024 Matagalpa Matagalpa 1-1 HT 0-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
10.11.2023 Matagalpa Matagalpa 2-0 HT 1-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
04.09.2023 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 2-2 HT 0-1 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
02.04.2023 Matagalpa Matagalpa 0-0 HT 0-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
10.02.2023 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 0-3 HT 0-1 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
POST-MATCH Export Sebaco vs Matagalpa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matagalpa got the better of Export Sebaco 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Export Sebaco at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Matagalpa led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Export Sebaco and 1.50 for Matagalpa.

What was the final score of Export Sebaco vs Matagalpa?

Export Sebaco 1-3 Matagalpa in the Nikaragua - Premier League on 08/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Export Sebaco vs Matagalpa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Export Sebaco win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Export Sebaco 41%, draw 28%, Matagalpa 31%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Export Sebaco), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Export Sebaco) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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