Hoffenheim 1-1 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 8 Dec 2024

Hoffenheim
1-1 HT 0-0
Freiburg
📅08/12/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Hoffenheim vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.37
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.59
6+ Goals
11%
14.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.59 — our 26% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.76
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
12%
5.96
X/2
10%
6.97
X/X
16%
4.87
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
18%
4.71
2/X
6%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+1.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.7pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hoffenheim v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 36%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +18%
1.75/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.51
+31% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +41%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
295 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 78%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
18.6 Crosses 15.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7

Hoffenheim vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Freiburg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.36 xG 1.95
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
354 Passes 314
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
20.01.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 3-2 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
19.08.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-2 HT 0-2 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
12.03.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
18.09.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 0-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
30.04.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 3-4 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
19.01.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-4 HT 0-2 Freiburg Freiburg AFK

Hoffenheim 1-1 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
1-1
AWAY Freiburg
1.41 xG 1.03
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
423 Passes 422
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim and Freiburg shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 50% of the ball to Freiburg's 50%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.41 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hoffenheim and 2.50 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Freiburg?

Hoffenheim 1-1 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 39%, draw 28%, Freiburg 33%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✗ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
8 Dec 2024
17:30 Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05 Analysis →