Wolfsburg 4-3 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 8 Dec 2024

📅08/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.39
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.57
6+ Goals
12%
14.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.57 — our 23% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.11
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.2
X/1
19%
5.28
X/2
11%
8.2
X/X
10%
5.0
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
15%
5.87
2/X
7%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-4.5pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+6.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.9pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 31%
-6% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.47/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.78
-10% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 75%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
20.3 Crosses 15.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsburg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mainz 05
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.37 xG 1.14
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
376 Passes 298
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2024 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-3 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
13.01.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 0-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
30.04.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 3-0 HT 3-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
05.11.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-3 HT 0-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
22.04.2022 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 5-0 HT 5-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
04.12.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-0 HT 2-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsburg
4-3
AWAY Mainz 05
1.24 xG 2.61
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
312 Passes 410
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolfsburg squeezed past Mainz 05 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Wolfsburg as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Wolfsburg had 44% of the ball to Mainz 05's 56%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.24 to 2.61 — on chances, Mainz 05 could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wolfsburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Wolfsburg and 1.17 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05?

Wolfsburg 4-3 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wolfsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Wolfsburg 41%, draw 26%, Mainz 05 34%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wolfsburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Wolfsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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