Wolfsburg 1-3 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.84
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
32%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.9
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.9 — our 26% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.41
1/2
9%
24.85
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
17%
6.62
X/2
11%
5.09
X/X
12%
4.88
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
12%
3.04
2/X
11%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+6.2pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.7pp
32%
Away Win
41%
-9.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.6pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.51/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.22
-8% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +9%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
312 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 77%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
18.0 Crosses 19.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsburg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mainz 05
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.45 xG 1.15
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
382 Passes 306
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.01.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 0-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
30.04.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 3-0 HT 3-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
05.11.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-3 HT 0-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
22.04.2022 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 5-0 HT 5-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
04.12.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-0 HT 2-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
22.05.2021 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-3 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsburg
1-3
AWAY Mainz 05
0.76 xG 1.80
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 3
372 Passes 172
77% Pass Accuracy 64%
17 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 saw off Wolfsburg 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 32%) promised a tight game; Mainz 05 found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Wolfsburg had 64% of the ball to Mainz 05's 36%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 0.76 to 1.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wolfsburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Wolfsburg and 1.17 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05?

Wolfsburg 1-3 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wolfsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Wolfsburg 38%, draw 30%, Mainz 05 32%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Wolfsburg), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wolfsburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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