Heidenheim 4-1 Köln — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 18 May 2024

Heidenheim
4-1 HT 3-0
Köln
📅18/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Heidenheim vs Köln Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.43
Over 2.5
53%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.46
No
49%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.33
2-3 Goals
40%
1.99
4-5 Goals
23%
2.68
6+ Goals
12%
6.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.71
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
5%
13.45
X/1
14%
4.93
X/2
10%
6.94
X/X
16%
6.17
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.1
2/2
17%
4.31
2/X
5%
13.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-6.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.1pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
64%
-13.0pp
49%
BTTS No
36%
+13.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heidenheim v Köln — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Köln EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.50/1.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.72
+12% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
317 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 74%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
18.9 Crosses 20.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Heidenheim vs Köln Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Köln
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.99 xG 1.93
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
264 Passes 404
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 32
20 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.01.2024 Köln Köln 1-1 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
07.04.2019 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-2 HT 0-2 Köln Köln AL2
27.10.2018 Köln Köln 1-1 HT 0-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2

Heidenheim 4-1 Köln — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
4-1
AWAY Köln
1.01 xG 2.29
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 22
8 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 12
308 Passes 333
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 39
22 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Köln
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim cruised past Köln 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Heidenheim made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Heidenheim had 48% of the ball to Köln's 52%, shots finished 16-22, expected goals 1.01 to 2.29 — the balance of chances actually favoured Köln.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Köln led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Heidenheim and 1.33 for Köln.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Köln?

Heidenheim 4-1 Köln in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Köln?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heidenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 40%, draw 26%, Köln 35%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heidenheim), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heidenheim) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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