Union Berlin vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Union Berlin v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals
Union Berlin vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-2
HT 3-0
Freiburg
AL1
4-1
HT 4-0
Union Berlin
AL1
1-4
HT 0-3
Union Berlin
AL1
0-0
HT 0-0
Freiburg
AL1
0-1
HT 0-0
Union Berlin
AL1
Union Berlin 2-1 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics
Union Berlin edged past Freiburg 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Union Berlin as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Union Berlin had 37% of the ball to Freiburg's 63%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 2.31 to 0.98 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Union Berlin's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Union Berlin and 1.17 for Freiburg.
What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Freiburg?
Union Berlin 2-1 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Freiburg?
Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 41%, draw 27%, Freiburg 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Berlin), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.