Hoffenheim 4-2 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 18 May 2024

Hoffenheim
4-2 HT 1-2
Bayern Münih
📅18/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hoffenheim vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.08
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
45%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.98
Over 2.5
55%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.35
No
48%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
7.8
2-3 Goals
40%
2.28
4-5 Goals
22%
2.4
6+ Goals
17%
4.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.66
1/2
5%
18.55
1/X
4%
13.2
X/1
12%
8.17
X/2
16%
4.97
X/X
12%
7.05
2/1 EV+ ✓
7%
28.0
2/2
24%
2.38
2/X
4%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 7% vs market 1.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
29%
+5.4pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.5pp
45%
Away Win
49%
-3.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
30%
+14.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
70%
-14.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
70%
-18.0pp
48%
BTTS No
30%
+18.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hoffenheim v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 54%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
1.81/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/1.18
+40% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -14%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 440 · 83%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.8
16.4 Crosses 14.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5

Hoffenheim vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.14 xG 2.44
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 8
290 Passes 528
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 41
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.01.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-0 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
15.04.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-1 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
22.10.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 0-2 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
12.03.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-1 HT 1-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
23.10.2021 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-0 HT 2-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
30.01.2021 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-1 HT 2-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1

Hoffenheim 4-2 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
4-2
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.78 xG 1.52
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
397 Passes 445
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
37 Box Touches 24
26 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim beat Bayern Münih 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Bayern Münih at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 48% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 52%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.78 to 1.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Hoffenheim and 2.50 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Bayern Münih?

Hoffenheim 4-2 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 34%, draw 20%, Bayern Münih 45%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayern Münih) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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