Köln 1-1 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
11.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 25% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.63
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.15
X/1
16%
4.53
X/2
8%
7.37
X/X
8%
4.99
2/1
7%
23.45
2/2
19%
5.22
2/X
7%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-3.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Köln EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 30%
-11% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+3% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
381 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 75%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
28.7 Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Köln
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Heidenheim
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.44 xG 1.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
24 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
424 Passes 235
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
38 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2019 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-2 HT 0-2 Köln Köln AL2
27.10.2018 Köln Köln 1-1 HT 0-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Köln
1-1
AWAY Heidenheim
0.90 xG 0.97
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 6
364 Passes 321
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 14
32 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Köln vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Köln and Heidenheim shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Köln at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Köln had 51% of the ball to Heidenheim's 49%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 0.90 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Köln had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Köln and 0.50 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Köln vs Heidenheim?

Köln 1-1 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Köln vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Köln 44%, draw 25%, Heidenheim 31%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Köln)
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