Mainz 05 1-1 Wolfsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 13 Jan 2024

Mainz 05
1-1 HT 0-1
Wolfsburg
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.08
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.84
6+ Goals
10%
16.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.69
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.55
X/1
15%
4.35
X/2
9%
7.32
X/X
13%
4.46
2/1
11%
25.5
2/2
16%
5.59
2/X
7%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.4pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mainz 05 v Wolfsburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.56/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.37
-20% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
353 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 71%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
20.4 Crosses 15.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.19 xG 1.54
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
272 Passes 389
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.04.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 3-0 HT 3-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
05.11.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-3 HT 0-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
22.04.2022 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 5-0 HT 5-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
04.12.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-0 HT 2-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
22.05.2021 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-3 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
19.01.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-2 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1

Mainz 05 1-1 Wolfsburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
1-1
AWAY Wolfsburg
0.42 xG 0.56
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
366 Passes 342
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 and Wolfsburg shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Mainz 05 at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 52% of the ball to Wolfsburg's 48%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.42 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wolfsburg led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mainz 05 and 2.50 for Wolfsburg.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg?

Mainz 05 1-1 Wolfsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 44%, draw 25%, Wolfsburg 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Mainz 05), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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