Augsburg 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 13 Jan 2024

Augsburg
0-1 HT 0-0
Bayer Leverkusen
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.65
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
45%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.98
2-3 Goals
40%
1.95
4-5 Goals
26%
2.79
6+ Goals
13%
7.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
8.25
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
19.95
1/X
10%
16.5
X/1
13%
11.65
X/2
12%
3.86
X/X
7%
6.63
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
23%
1.85
2/X
8%
16.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.95 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
18%
+11.6pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.6pp
45%
Away Win
61%
-16.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.1pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 66%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +14%
0.98/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.01
-3% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +38%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
255 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 448 · 82%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
14.9 Crosses 16.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.99 xG 1.81
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
229 Passes 521
69% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.02.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
13.08.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 HT 1-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
22.01.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 HT 2-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
28.08.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 1-4 HT 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
21.02.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
26.10.2020 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1

Augsburg 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
0-1
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.43 xG 1.97
24% Ball Possession 76%
3 Total Shots 24
0 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 12
191 Passes 713
76% Pass Accuracy 91%
13 Box Touches 56
7 Crosses 34
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen edged past Augsburg 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Augsburg had 24% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 76%, shots finished 3-24, expected goals 0.43 to 1.97 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bayer Leverkusen's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Augsburg and 2.33 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Augsburg 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 30%, draw 25%, Bayer Leverkusen 45%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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