Freiburg 3-2 Hoffenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Jan 2024

Freiburg
3-2 HT 1-0
Hoffenheim
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Freiburg vs Hoffenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.18
Over 2.5
57%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.43
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
28%
2.95
6+ Goals
14%
8.74
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.65
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
11%
4.71
X/2
12%
7.23
X/X
15%
5.42
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.15
2/2
13%
4.81
2/X
5%
13.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.15 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-5.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.5pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
42%
+0.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
58%
-0.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.6pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg v Hoffenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -5%
1.74/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.62
-5% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
376 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
20.7 Crosses 17.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.7

Freiburg vs Hoffenheim Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Hoffenheim
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.77 xG 1.27
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
312 Passes 356
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-2 HT 0-2 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
12.03.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
18.09.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 0-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
30.04.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 3-4 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
19.01.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-4 HT 0-2 Freiburg Freiburg AFK
11.12.2021 Freiburg Freiburg 1-2 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1

Freiburg 3-2 Hoffenheim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
3-2
AWAY Hoffenheim
2.69 xG 1.45
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
276 Passes 389
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 37
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Hoffenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg nicked a narrow win over Hoffenheim 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Freiburg as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Freiburg had 43% of the ball to Hoffenheim's 57%, shots finished 18-16, expected goals 2.69 to 1.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Freiburg's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Freiburg and 1.33 for Hoffenheim.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Hoffenheim?

Freiburg 3-2 Hoffenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Hoffenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 41%, draw 28%, Hoffenheim 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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