Heidenheim 1-1 Wolfsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Jan 2024

Heidenheim
1-1 HT 1-1
Wolfsburg
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Heidenheim vs Wolfsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
33%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.62
6+ Goals
12%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 27% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.9
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
10%
12.9
X/1
11%
5.71
X/2
12%
5.33
X/X
10%
4.48
2/1
10%
30.0
2/2
16%
3.54
2/X
8%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+2.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.8pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-3.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heidenheim v Wolfsburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -21%
1.54/2.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.41
+14% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -18%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
284 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 76%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
20.3 Crosses 19.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Heidenheim vs Wolfsburg Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Wolfsburg
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.18 xG 2.18
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
293 Passes 442
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 28
24 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-0 HT 2-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
26.10.2016 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-1 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AFK
29.10.2014 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 4-1 HT 2-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AFK

Heidenheim 1-1 Wolfsburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
1-1
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.12 xG 1.11
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
383 Passes 371
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Wolfsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim and Wolfsburg shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Heidenheim had 52% of the ball to Wolfsburg's 48%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.12 to 1.11.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Wolfsburg led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Heidenheim and 2.33 for Wolfsburg.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Wolfsburg?

Heidenheim 1-1 Wolfsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Wolfsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heidenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 39%, draw 28%, Wolfsburg 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Heidenheim) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heidenheim) ✓ Under 2.5
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