Bochum 1-0 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.5
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
43%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.13
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
9.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.01
1/2
7%
21.75
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
13%
8.44
X/2
16%
4.24
X/X
9%
5.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
34.0
2/2
19%
2.32
2/X
9%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 7% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+7.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
43%
Away Win
52%
-8.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.9pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bochum EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 56%
+5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -37% / -40%
1.50/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/1.54
+9% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / -54%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
249 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 79%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.8
19.2 Crosses 17.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bochum
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Stuttgart
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.36 xG 1.79
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
291 Passes 384
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.08.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 5-0 HT 2-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
09.04.2023 Bochum Bochum 2-3 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
15.10.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 4-1 HT 2-1 Bochum Bochum AL1
19.02.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 0-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
26.09.2021 Bochum Bochum 0-0 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
17.02.2020 Bochum Bochum 0-1 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bochum
1-0
AWAY Stuttgart
0.90 xG 1.45
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 7
184 Passes 379
62% Pass Accuracy 76%
11 Box Touches 47
14 Crosses 29
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bochum vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bochum nicked a narrow win over Stuttgart 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Stuttgart at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Bochum had 37% of the ball to Stuttgart's 63%, shots finished 6-19, expected goals 0.90 to 1.45 — the balance of chances actually favoured Stuttgart.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stuttgart led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Bochum and 2.33 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of Bochum vs Stuttgart?

Bochum 1-0 Stuttgart in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bochum vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated an Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Bochum 32%, draw 25%, Stuttgart 43%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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