Köln 0-4 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Jan 2024

Köln
0-4 HT 0-1
Borussia Dortmund
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Köln vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
46%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.8
2-3 Goals
41%
2.05
4-5 Goals
26%
2.62
6+ Goals
12%
6.09
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.12
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
20.05
1/X
11%
13.25
X/1
12%
8.22
X/2
17%
4.67
X/X
11%
6.16
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
18%
2.36
2/X
5%
13.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.05 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
+0.5pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.4pp
45%
Away Win
50%
-4.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.0pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Köln v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Köln EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 54%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.28/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.40
-2% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 79%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.9
21.8 Crosses 15.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7

Köln vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Köln
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.45 xG 2.08
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
342 Passes 459
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 0-0 Köln Köln AL1
18.03.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 6-1 HT 4-1 Köln Köln AL1
01.10.2022 Köln Köln 3-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
20.03.2022 Köln Köln 1-1 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
30.10.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-0 HT 1-0 Köln Köln AL1
20.03.2021 Köln Köln 2-2 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1

Köln 0-4 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Köln
0-4
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.30 xG 3.38
39% Ball Possession 61%
19 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 7
13 Corners 4
309 Passes 559
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
25 Box Touches 26
30 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Köln vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund cruised past Köln 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (56%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

On the day, Köln had 39% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 61%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.30 to 3.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Köln and 2.33 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Köln vs Borussia Dortmund?

Köln 0-4 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Köln vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Köln 27%, draw 27%, Borussia Dortmund 45%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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