RB Leipzig 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Jan 2024

RB Leipzig
2-3 HT 1-0
Bayer Leverkusen
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.38
Over 2.5
53%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.05
2-3 Goals
36%
1.95
4-5 Goals
25%
2.77
6+ Goals
14%
7.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.24
1/2
9%
25.0
1/X
9%
12.55
X/1
13%
5.58
X/2
13%
6.04
X/X
10%
5.64
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.45
2/2
14%
3.61
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.45 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-0.9pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.4pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+0.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.2pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RB Leipzig v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 39%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +18%
1.56/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.50
-14% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +33%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
371 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 79%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
19.1 Crosses 14.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.37 xG 0.94
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
478 Passes 376
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 HT 2-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
23.04.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
29.10.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
17.04.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
28.11.2021 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-3 HT 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
30.01.2021 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1

RB Leipzig 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
2-3
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.63 xG 2.04
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 9
347 Passes 579
81% Pass Accuracy 90%
24 Box Touches 39
8 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen squeezed past RB Leipzig 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Bayer Leverkusen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 40% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 60%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 1.63 to 2.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.33 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen?

RB Leipzig 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 39%, draw 25%, Bayer Leverkusen 36%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RB Leipzig) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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