Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 8 Dec 2024

📅08/12/2024 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
42%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
3.13
6+ Goals
11%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.12
1/2
7%
22.55
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
12%
8.6
X/2
17%
4.37
X/X
8%
5.38
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.39
2/X
8%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
24%
+9.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
43%
Away Win
52%
-9.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 56%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.02/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.24/1.49
-9% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / -33%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
232 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 82%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
18.6 Crosses 16.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.47 xG 2.40
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
182 Passes 432
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
19.07.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 HT 0-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
16.12.2023 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 3-3 HT 0-3 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
29.07.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-1 HT 1-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
1-1
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.35 xG 1.35
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 2
181 Passes 460
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 32
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Puszcza Niepolomice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puszcza Niepolomice and Jagiellonia Bialystok shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Jagiellonia Bialystok at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Puszcza Niepolomice had 33% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 67%, shots finished 7-19, expected goals 1.35 to 1.35.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Puszcza Niepolomice and 3.00 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Puszcza Niepolomice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puszcza Niepolomice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Puszcza Niepolomice 34%, draw 24%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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