Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 8 Dec 2024

📅08/12/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.46
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
43%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.08
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
3.13
6+ Goals
11%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.08 — our 28% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.75
1/2
6%
22.55
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
14%
8.16
X/2
20%
4.48
X/X
12%
5.33
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.49
2/X
6%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
26%
+6.0pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
43%
Away Win
50%
-6.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.8pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 54%
-10% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -2%
1.29/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.25
-22% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +17%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
288 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 82%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
20.9 Crosses 19.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Legia Varşova
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.66 xG 1.73
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
318 Passes 386
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-0 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
25.05.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-1 HT 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
03.12.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 HT 0-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
04.02.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 HT 0-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
23.07.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-0 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
04.02.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 HT 0-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
0-3
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.52 xG 1.61
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
374 Passes 167
80% Pass Accuracy 64%
31 Box Touches 26
31 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova cruised past Zaglebie Lubin 3-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Zaglebie Lubin had 65% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 35%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.52 to 1.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 2.33 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Varşova?

Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Zaglebie Lubin 32%, draw 25%, Legia Varşova 43%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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