Sion 4-1 Baden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 9 Feb 2024

Sion
4-1 HT 2-0
Baden
📅09/02/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.3
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.19
No
58%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.75
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.19
6+ Goals
8%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 28% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
73%
-13.2pp
24%
Draw
18%
+6.6pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+6.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.5pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sion EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Baden EU Bookmakers 12%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +27%
1.40/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.70
-21% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +29%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
419 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.8
20.0 Crosses 14.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sion
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Baden
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.21 xG 0.54
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
539 Passes 296
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
21.10.2023 Baden Baden 0-4 HT 0-1 Sion Sion İSV2
01.09.2023 Sion Sion 1-1 HT 0-0 Baden Baden İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sion
4-1
AWAY Baden
1.38 xG 0.27
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
419 Passes 357
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
37 Box Touches 8
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sion vs Baden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sion ran out comfortable winners over Baden 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sion as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sion had 53% of the ball to Baden's 47%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.38 to 0.27.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sion had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Sion and 0.50 for Baden.

What was the final score of Sion vs Baden?

Sion 4-1 Baden in the Switzerland Challenge League on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sion vs Baden?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sion win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Sion 60%, draw 24%, Baden 16%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sion) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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